89. PM to step down in 2009?

On the face of it, postponing the party elections until June next year helps Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi more than anyone else in Umno.

He can remain as party president and Prime Minister and have another six to eight months to complete some reforms and salvage his legacy.

And as a bonus he will not have to seek nominations from divisions which have become increasingly confrontational towards him since the Permatang Pauh by-election defeat on August 26.

A win-win proposition for a man with precious few options.

Only in theory, it seems.

Officials familiar with the series of meetings on the transition plan between Abdullah and Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak say that the PM was not sold on the idea when his number two raised it on Tuesday.

He reasoned that postponing the party elections would open Umno to ridicule from Malaysians (many of whom already view the party in dim light no thanks to the likes of Ahmad Ismail, etc) and create even more unhappiness among the party grassroots, who have spent the last few months preparing for the elections.

Abdullah's supporters have another reason to object to pushing back the election date: it paints Abdullah as a desperate leader who is willing to do anything to stay on as party president. And this includes staying on in a lame duck capacity.

An Umno Supreme Council member, who is aligned to Abdullah, told The Malaysian Insider: "Najib should either support the transition plan or tell PM that he cannot do so. Then Pak Lah can go on and try and get the nominations to defend his position. This is more honourable than trying to stay on like this…This idea of postponing the elections and then handing the position to Najib only benefits Najib.''

How so?

It appears that the DPM has lost control of his own warlords on the ground. He admitted as much in talks with several supreme council members recently.

As such, he is unable or unwilling to risk the backlash from them if he continues to support the transition plan which will see Abdullah contesting the party elections in December and then handing over power to Najib in 2010.

Najib believes that if he supports the transition plan unconditionally, there is a possibility that he and Abdullah will have to face off with Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and other critics of the PM.

He has told his supporters that he is confident that he and Abdullah will be able to emerge victorious but was worried that it will come at a high price.

On the flip side, if he distances himself from Abdullah's transition plan, this is bound to persuade the PM to wage an all out campaign to obtain at least 58 nominations from the divisions and defend his party president's position.

In this scenario, Najib may have to face off with Abdullah, a battle which could be expensive for a politician still recovering from a battering to his image by the Opposition.

So the safest option for Najib was to cobble together a plan which achieved the twin objectives of allowing Abdullah to remain in his position for a few more months without committing to the 2010 transition plan.

He believes that postponing the party elections will keep the peace in the party and allow all the stakeholders to walk away with something.

And yes, it will allow Najib to inherit an intact Umno - The Malaysian Insider.